Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported with delay. A case-study of Sweden and UK

A talk about a Nowcasting model we built for Covid-19 deaths.
Presenter

Jonas Wallin

Adam Altmejd

Joacim Rocklöv

Published

May 21, 2021

Publication

Statistical Learning Seminars, Online

Links

Abstract
Monitoring the progress of the Coronavirus is crucial for timely implementation of intervention. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported numbers are frequently underestimating the total number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths creating an illusion of a downward trend. Here we describe a statistical methodology for predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived from the “removal method”, a well-established estimation framework in the field of ecology. We show how the method works for both the Swedish and the UK death count.

 

Citation

BibTeX citation:
@unpublished{wallin2021,
  author = {Wallin, Jonas and Altmejd, Adam and Rocklöv, Joacim},
  title = {Nowcasting {Covid-19} Statistics Reported with Delay. {A}
    Case-Study of {Sweden} and {UK}},
  date = {2021-05-21},
  url = {https://www.youtube.com/embed/RHLPu389PNY},
  langid = {en},
  abstract = {Monitoring the progress of the Coronavirus is crucial for
    timely implementation of intervention. The availability of unbiased
    timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective
    responses. But due to reporting delays, the most recently reported
    numbers are frequently underestimating the total number of
    infections, hospitalizations and deaths creating an illusion of a
    downward trend. Here we describe a statistical methodology for
    predicting true daily quantities and their uncertainty, estimated
    using historical reporting delays. The methodology takes into
    account the observed distribution pattern of the lag. It is derived
    from the “removal method”, a well-established estimation framework
    in the field of ecology. We show how the method works for both the
    Swedish and the UK death count.}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
Wallin, Jonas, Adam Altmejd, and Joacim Rocklöv. 2021. “Nowcasting Covid-19 Statistics Reported with Delay. A Case-Study of Sweden and UK.” Online, Online, May 21. https://www.youtube.com/embed/RHLPu389PNY.